NOBODY had done it before. Not Schumacher, not Senna, not Hamilton across a combined 300-something victories. Kimi Antonelli became the first driver in Formula 1 history to win his opening three Grand Prix races from three consecutive pole positions, and the 2026 championship odds across Onjabet Original have bent accordingly. The 19-year-old Mercedes prodigy sits on 100 points after four rounds, 20 clear of teammate George Russell, and the wagering picture looks nothing like it did when the grid first lined up in Melbourne back in March.
A Championship Table That Spooked the Bookmakers
Four races into this season and the standings read like someone scrambled the pre-season predictions through a blender. The top seven tell most of the story.
- 1 Kimi Antonelli Mercedes 100 points
- 2 George Russell Mercedes 80 points
- 3 Charles Leclerc Ferrari 59 points
- 4 Lando Norris McLaren 51 points
- 5 Lewis Hamilton Ferrari 51 points
- 6 Oscar Piastri McLaren 43 points
- 7 Max Verstappen Red Bull 26 points
Mercedes holds 180 constructor points. Ferrari trails at 110. McLaren sits on 94, which felt impossible to predict even two months ago given their dominant 2025 form. Red Bull, the team that won four consecutive constructors’ titles before last year, has scraped together 30 points and looks lost inside the new technical framework.
Verstappen is 74 points behind Antonelli with 18 races remaining. That kind of margin makes outright championship markets feel almost settled, and the books have adjusted multiple times across just a few weeks.
Where the Pre-Season Favourite Went Wrong
Rewind to January. Verstappen opened at 5/2 on most books. The consensus pick. Four world titles, years of Red Bull machinery supremacy. Russell sat at 11/4 with Mercedes expected to thrive under the new regulations. Defending 2025 champion Norris was around 7/2. Antonelli? Buried between 8/1 and 14/1 depending on the bookmaker, the kind of price you offer a talented rookie whose ceiling remains theoretical.
Then the season started and theory became three trophies.
Driver Pre-Season Odds Post-Miami Odds
Antonelli +800 to +1400 +110 (favourite)
Russell -175 to +275 +225
Norris +350 +333
Verstappen +250 (favourite) Drifted heavily
Norris had the sharpest single-weekend swing. His sprint victory and runner-up Grand Prix finish in Miami pushed him from +2500 to +333 between Friday and Sunday, a move that reflects both his pace and how shallow the McLaren price had become. Antonelli crossed from longshot to outright favourite in the space of three races. Prediction markets now assign him roughly 40% implied probability for the title, with Russell trailing at 27% and nobody else above 11%.
Anyone who backed Antonelli at 14/1 in January is sitting on one of the best motorsport futures positions in recent memory, and the price still has room to tighten if Mercedes maintains this pace through the European swing.
Red Bull Cannot Fix What Verstappen Hates
“I’m not even frustrated anymore. I’m beyond that.” Those words came from Verstappen before the Miami weekend, in a tone closer to resignation than anger. After the race, having spun on the opening lap and clawed back to fifth, the four-time champion was only slightly warmer about the tweaks Formula 1 implemented to address driver complaints.
The 2026 regulations replaced F1’s ground effect philosophy with a near 50/50 split between electric and combustion power, active aerodynamics, and a boost button that invited some pointed mockery from drivers. Verstappen labelled the result “Formula E on steroids.” His former teammate Perez, now at Cadillac, said his childhood Mario Kart sessions had finally proved useful preparation.
The championship futures market is pricing this dissatisfaction seriously. Prediction platforms are giving a non-trivial probability to Verstappen walking away from the sport entirely after 2026, and his results so far offer no catalyst for optimism. Red Bull’s constructor deficit to Mercedes sits at 150 points. Their car fights the energy management philosophy that defines the new formula. Punters still holding Verstappen outright positions are staring at dead money unless something fundamental changes in how Red Bull’s engineers interpret these regulations.
What Montreal Means for the Next Odds Shift
The Canadian Grand Prix arrives May 22 in Montreal with another sprint weekend format, which means extra points and extra volatility for those watching the betting markets. The street-style circuit adds a variable that nobody has tested under the new aero package yet.
McLaren showed legitimate pace in Miami. Norris was one strategy call away from winning, and Piastri completed the podium. Two consecutive strong weekends from McLaren would shorten the Norris price further while creating pressure on Russell, whose +225 tag looks generous only if you believe he can close a 20-point gap on the teenager sharing his garage. The Miami odds barely had time to settle before the paddock started packing for Montreal, and given how this season has gone, expect the markets to move before the cars do.
Article written by Amber Bailey
