A GREEN campaigner claims his expert-backed research refuting Coventry’s predicted population explosion has thrown into doubt the need for thousands of new homes in and around the city.
Former prospective councillor Merle Gering says ‘ghosts and vampires’ – people supposedly moving to or being born in Coventry – are showing no footprints on any regional statistics that would suggest a rising population.
Coventry City Council’s Local Plan outlines the need for 42,400 homes to be built in and around the city by 2031, based on data which suggests the population is set to increase by nearly a third in that time.
But Mr Gering, a member of the Keep Our Greenbelt Green campaign group, says the population forecasts are ‘spurious’ and the true number of houses needed is closer to 18,600.
He has called on the council to conduct an urgent review of its Local Plan – which he says is a ‘death sentence’ for the greenbelt.
Based on figures from the government’s Office of National Statistics (ONS), the council says the city’s population growth up to 2031 is forecast to be twice as fast as Birmingham and Rugby, and three times as fast as neighbouring Warwick and Solihull.
But Mr Gering says there is no evidence to show a population explosion in Coventry.
He argues that if the population was rising, there would be a massive footprint of activity and extra pressure on services.
His study, based on the ONS’ own figures as well as data from bodies such as the NHS, suggests the city’s birth rate decreased by nearly five per cent between 2009 and 2017.
He says statistics showing increases in employment, A&E attendances, voters, ESA claimants, state pensions and secondary school admissions are comparable to average growths in neighbouring authorities.
His analysis – which has been commended by professor of demography at Oxford University David Coleman and Newcastle University professor Tony Champion, an adviser to the ONS – estimates there could be more than 100,000 ‘ghosts’ in the projections for population growth by 2031.
Mr Gering said: “The huge influx of population is not happening. The alleged newcomers are ghosts or vampires who use no electricity or gas, don’t go to A&E, don’t own cars, don’t have babies or send children to school. They don’t vote, don’t collect pensions, and don’t produce any waste in their bins.
“The council should immediately begin a review of the Local Plan and return land to the greenbelt.”
He says the only figures which support a rise in population are the registration of national insurance numbers – but claims this is due to foreign students temporarily moving to the city to study, and working at the same time.
Despite ONS calculations, Mr Gering believes many more graduates leave the city than stay – based on estimates from Home Office records and the Higher Education Statistics Agency.
Prof Coleman said: “As far as the migration and demographic aspects are concerned, in my opinion Mr Gering’s report was very well produced. It would not be easy to produce anything better, given the uncertainties in the data themselves.”
Head of the ONS’ population estimates unit Neil Park said: “Using methods that are rigorously assessed by academic and government experts, we make estimates of the size of the population to help inform policy makers.
“We look to produce these estimates as accurately as we can and are always looking at how our statistics can be improved.
“We will continue to engage with a group of concerned residents in Coventry as we look to further improve the quality of our population statistics.”
A council spokesperson said: “The ONS has indicated a need to continually review population projections and the method used to create them to make sure they are as accurate as possible.
“The Coventry figures have been drawn up to reflect the needs of the city as well as the sub region. We believe they are as accurate as possible.
“We constantly look at new evidence to ensure our local plan remains up to date and we will be looking at a variety of new evidence.
“A decision will then be made as to whether any part of the Local Plan needs to be reviewed.”
Opposition Conservative councillors have also called for a review into the Local Plan after objections were raised by the NHS and key government bodies about developments in Keresley and Eastern Green.
