A HOST of Conservative MPs in the Midlands would lose their seats in a Labour landslide if a General Election were held tomorrow, a new poll has revealed.
Labour would return to the House of Commons with a 314 seat majority, according to the latest poll from Savanta.
South Leicestershire, Rugby and Bulkington, Kenilworth and Southam, Solihull, Meriden, Redditch, Worcester, and Northfield would be among the constituencies which would change hands from Conservative to Labour.
The poll, Savanta’s first since the Labour Party conference, gives Labour a 20-point voting intention lead – which, when converted to seats, would more than double the number of MPs they currently have in Westminster.
Chris Hopkins, Political Research Director at Savanta, said: “This latest model reflects the position now of two parties experiencing widely differing electoral fortunes.
“Last time we published a poll, I spoke of the precarious nature of the 56-seat majority and 12-point lead the poll gave the Labour Party during their conference. Even the most optimistic Labour supporter would not have foreseen what was to come, such was the subsequent Conservative collapse.
“But we must still express caution. Many seats going to Labour in this model, including a few that could be deemed ‘Red Wall’, still indicate a 40 per cent or higher chance of remaining Conservative, and while that would have little impact on the overall election result, it does show that if Rishi Sunak can keep narrowing that Labour lead, point-by-point, the actual results come 2024 could look very different to this model.”
Martin Baxter, Founder and CEO of Electoral Calculus, added: “This is an interesting poll, because it is the first we have done since the Conservatives slid so far behind Labour, and therefore we have very little to compare it with.
“We are in uncharted electoral waters and uncertainty is higher than usual.”
The poll shows the Conservatives would be likely wiped out in much of the north of England, with the model suggesting that the party would not hold a single seat north of Lincolnshire – including Rishi Sunak’s Richmond constituency – while also losing all of the seats in London, and conceding many in the South West to Labour and the Liberal Democrats.
The SNP would gain an extra seven seats, leaving them with all bar four of Scotland’s 59 Westminster constituencies, while the Liberal Democrats would have more MPs since 2010, taking Dominic Raab’s Esher and Walton seat.
Visit https://tinyurl.com/mvmvf958 for more details on the poll.
